What does the future hold for CSOs in Russia? Top three scenarios for the development of the non-profit sector

 

06.04.2026

 

Article published on the dobro.press website

 

The third sector is expected to undergo changes amid global conflicts and new economic challenges. What sort of future do sociologists and industry experts predict for CSOs? What changes are expected as early as this year?

 

The latest trends in the third sector were outlined at the roundtable event on the theme of “Forecast Scenarios for the Development of the Non-Profit Sector in Russia”. The discussions took place during the 16th International Grushin Sociological Conference.

 

AI breakthrough and social innovation

 

A shift away from rigid vertical management structures and the adoption of AI technologies is one of the most anticipated changes in CSOs. Charitable organisations need a systematic approach to naturally integrate social innovations.

 

The best response to this challenge is the creation of sectoral ecosystems, explained Artem Shadrin, Director of the Institute for Socio-Economic Design at HSE University. An example of such an ecosystem is the Dobro.rf Association.

 

‘If we talk about the internal transformation of the non-profit sector, we can expect the dominance of artificial intelligence. This will mean a very rapid change in job functions and roles, with social adaptation programmes being increasingly in demand’, the expert noted.

 

Key scenarios for the development of the CSO sector

 

The research group ZIRCON and the Dobro.rf Association have formulated three main scenarios for the most likely future for CSOs.

 

Unlocking internal potential – 60% probability

 

• Increased awareness and engagement of Russians in the CSO sector;
• Professionalisation of staff;
• Greater transparency in CSO operations.

 

Under State patronage – 70% probability

 

• Decline in socio-political activity among the population;
• Increased Government regulation of CSOs;
• Higher tax burden on the third sector;
• Reduction in business investment.

Integration into global trends – 34% probability

 

• Development of international cooperation;
• Increased activity of foreign foundations in Russia;
• Removal of the “foreign agent” status for CSOs.

 

According to Vladimir Vayner, Advisor to the Chairman of the Council of the Dobro.rf Association, the key function of non-profit organisations in the new reality is the ‘unpacking of meanings’.

 

The sector faces the task of interpreting Presidential Decree No. 809 on values, specifically, to determine who creates these values. The future of CSOs in our country depends on this.

 

“Because there is no real unpacking of values – there is only a list, without substance. And this, it seems to me, is an important function of non-profit organisations. This is what the State expects from us”, said Vladimir Vayner.

 

What problems do Russian CSOs face?

 

• Staff shortages and high turnover;
• Low financial sustainability;
• Underdeveloped infrastructure;
• Low public awareness of activities.

 

“It was a revelation for us that there are significant issues in interaction and communication – both within the sector itself and with the public and the State”, said Anastasia Saponova, Deputy Head of the ZIRCON Research Group.

 

What should foundations do to adapt to change?

 

• Connect to fundraising platforms in order to expand the donor base;
• Develop their communication and fundraising channels;
• Create strategies to strengthen relationships with those who donate through automated formats;
• Raise awareness of social issues and share the results with the public;
• Avoid concentrating fundraising on a single platform; instead, look at the potential of grants, corporate partnerships, events, and direct donations.

 

Source: https://dobro.press/articles/budushchee-nko-v-rossii-chto-zhdyot-tretij-sektor-v-2026-godu